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Kafr Shams and Umm al-Awsaj under army
The SAA captures Tel Harra
army enter Harra town
SAA liberate Tayhah
If this continues, a western Idlib offensive is inevitable.
It will happen regardless of the attacks on Hmeymin anyway.
It's inevitable anyway.
The syrian governement has no reasons to let the jihadists run Idlib any longer.
The difference in strength bewteen the governement and the rebels is huge now. The syrian army could take the whole Idlib area in probably less than a month and end the islamist rebellion once for all.
Based on what, exactly? The fact that you personally do not like these attacks happening? You're presuming too much, really.
Based on the fact, that Russia wants this air base to be real strategic, and not just for the Syrian civil war, but for power projection in the whole middle east. From this point of view, it is not really possible, that they will allow insurgents who constantly threaten and attack the air base with drones some tens of cilometers from the base. It's not about what I want or not, I just can't imagine that they will do nothing about this. At least I don't know big important US or British military bases which haven't got a secured environment.
That's not a fact, it is something you thought up. At least you would not call it a fact to start with...
And no, they don't care about power projection, otherwise they would've taken the offer for a completely separate from civilian use airbase, not a dinky dual use one without even basic shelter protection.
We will see
That's not the point...
The problems that you guys start to think up your own little fantasies about what's going to happen without thinking why it would happen past comedic movie experience.
If there's going to be a campaign to liberate Idlib, it'll primarily be focused around the M5 highway and cutting the encirclement of the pocket they've got there. Similarly how the Daraa offensive was all about clearing a path to Jordan, not to actually take Daraa city itself...
I don't think it's comedic. Isn't it just simple logical thinking, that if anyone constantly attacks you, you will solve this problem and secure more territory? Also the main goal of the Daraa offensive is maybe the Highway, but they still will take all towns and Daraa city, because the long term goal is to retake the territory.
It's not logical at all because it's not that simple. You're trying to compress a complex situation into a single point.
First of all, they've made a commitment with Turkey to oversee the reconciliation zone. They will likely demand Turkey to overwatch the areas more closely and if required, remove the groups that cause trouble.
Secondly, this might not be the work of a large group. It could be the work of a very small sect of insurgents that simply dislike Russia or are funded to dislike Russia. Why would they decide to punish all of Idlib with an offensive and an extensive bombing campaign just because of a few people? That is not logical.
There are also deals in place that they will not violate. If they think that these attacks are a problem, then what they will do is release a statement. So far, none of the attacks were reported to have even threatened the lives of Russian personnel, I would advise you watch their briefs before making any conclusions.
I have to say that I have the utmost respect for your approach here. Real life situations are rarely simple in a way that can be reduced to a single factor.
Don't know if it's worth much to you as we often disagree, but there it is.
Well, he's not wrong. Sooner or later, the security situation around the bases will have to be improved (which means expanding the red area around them).
Based upon the fact that these attacks are annoying and costly. And that they’re obviously getting data on defensive capabilities of the base. Eventually they’ll get through and cause damage, so it’s important to solve the problem before equipment is destroyed
The entire situation in Syria is annoying for Russia, that means very little if anything at all.
How are these attacks costly for the Russians? If anything it's a great way to advertise the reliability of their systems for repelling attacks on military bases.
Here's an idea, if they were costly and annoying to the point that the Russians would need to start another active campaign (you might wanna remember they just withdrew a bunch of their Su-25's out of the country), they would first turn on the EW to jam the signals the drones are getting.
If they'd do that, we would very quickly know by a blanket blackout of all communications around 100 kilo-meters in radius around the airbase. Yet they do not do this... because it is insignificant for them. Frankly, even their patrols would be able to shoot the drones out of the sky with their standard issue rifles.
And that they’re obviously getting data on defensive capabilities of the base
There's at least 6 Pantsir's and a single Tor system there. That is more than enough to cover absolutely all angles of attacks and if the Russians thought the drones had any chance of getting through the current defences, they would have shipped another few Pantsir's and Tor's there.
As of right now, the attacks are absolutely insignificant. They never released any statements saying that Turkey is partially responsible due to them not being able to observe the situation on the ground. They only acknowledged that is not a very easy thing to do.
For them to renegade on their diplomatic agreements done at the highest level would take a lot more than a few drones getting too close to comfort to the base. And it is quite likely we would hear something from diplomats before that happens.
Oh and they're getting absolutely jack all information. To gather information from signals you would need to equip the drones with special receivers and transceivers to send the signals back. What they see is the fact that there's a radar listening 24/7 and that some illumination and guidance radar turns on when it see's the threat.
The Russians have probably gained more experience and knowledge about their own systems than the attackers managed to. Not to mention a great increase in public perception as to how well the systems perform in an unknown multivariable environment.